xviii, 358 pages ; 22 cm An exploration of human reasoning reveals how to recognize and avoid simple errors in our day-to-day thinking in order to transform the decision-making process Translation of the author's Die Kunst des klaren Denkens, published by Hanser in 2012 In the title the word "thinking" is printed upside down Includes bibliographical references Why you should visit cemeteries : survivorship bias -- Does Harvard make you smarter? : swimmer's body illusion -- Why you see shapes in the clouds : clustering illusion -- If fifty million people say something foolish, it is still foolish : social proof -- Why you should forget the past : sunk cost fallacy -- Don't accept free drinks : reciprocity -- Beware the "special case" : confirmation bias (part 1) -- Murder your darlings : confirmation bias (part 2) -- Don't bow to authority : authority bias -- Leave your supermodel friends at home : contrast effect -- Why we prefer a wrong map to none at all : availability bias -- Why "no pain, no gain" should set alarm bells ringing : the it'll-get-worse-before-it-gets-better fallacy -- Even true stories are fairy tales : story bias -- Why you should keep a diary : hindsight bias -- Why you systematically overestimate your knowledge and abilities : overconfidence effect -- Don't take news anchors seriously : chauffeur knowledge -- You control less than you think : illusion of control -- Never pay your lawyer by the hour : incentive super-response tendency -- The dubious efficacy of doctors, consultants, and psychotherapists : regression to mean -- Never judge a decision by its outcome : outcome bias -- Less is more : paradox of choice -- You like me, you really, really like me : liking bias -- Don't cling to things : endowment effect -- The inevitability of unlikely events : coincidence -- The calamity of conformity : groupthink -- Why you'll soon be playing mega trillions : neglect of probability -- Why the last cookie in the jar makes your mouth water : scarcity error -- When you hear hoofbeats, don't expect a zebra : base-rate neglect -- Why the "balancing force of the universe" is baloney : gambler's fallacy -- Why the wheel of fortune makes our heads spin : the anchor -- How to relieve people of their millions : induction -- Why evil is more striking than good : loss aversion -- Why teams are lazy : social loafing -- Stumped by a sheet of paper : exponential growth -- Curb your enthusiasm : winner's curse -- Never ask a writer if the novel is autobiographical : fundamental attribution error -- Why you shouldn't believe in the stork : false causality -- Why attractive people climb the career ladder more quickly : halo effect -- Congratulations! you've won Russian roulette : alternative paths -- False prophets : forecast illusion -- The deception of specific cases : conjunction fallacy -- It's not what you say, but how you say it : framing -- Why watching and waiting is torture : action bias -- Why you are either the solution--or the problem : omission bias -- Don't blame me : self-serving bias -- Be careful what you wish for : hedonic treadmill -- Do not marvel at your existence : self-selection bias -- Why experience can damage your judgment : association bias -- Be wary when things get off to a great start : beginner's luck -- Sweet little lies : cognitive dissonance -- Live each day as if it were your last--but only on Sundays : hyperbolic discounting -- Any lame excuse : "because" justification -- Decide better--decide less : decision fatigue -- Would you wear Hitler's sweater? : contagion bias -- Why there is no such thing as an average war : the problem with averages -- How bonuses destroy motivation : motivation crowding -- If you have nothing to say, say nothing : twaddle tendency -- How to increase the average IQ of two states : Will Rogers phenomenon -- If you have an enemy, give him information : information bias -- Hurts so good : effort justification -- Why small things loom large : the law of small numbers -- Handle with care : expectations -- Speed traps ahead! : simple logic -- How to expose a charlatan : Forer effect -- Volunteer work is for the birds : volunteer's folly -- Why you are a slave to your emotions : affect heuristic -- Be your own heretic : introspection illusion -- Why you should set fire to your ships : inability to close doors -- Disregard the brand new : neomania -- Why propaganda works : sleeper effect -- Why it's never just a two-horse race : alternative blindness -- Why we take aim at young guns : social comparison bias -- Why first impressions are deceiving : primacy and recency effects -- Why you can't beat homemade : not-invented-here syndrome -- How to profit from the implausible : the black swan -- Knowledge is nontransferable : domain dependence -- The myth of like-mindedness : false-consensus effect -- You were right all along : falsification of history -- Why you identify with your football team : in-group out-group bias -- The difference between risk and uncertainty : ambiguity aversion -- Why you go with the status quo : default effect -- Why "last chances" make us panic : fear of regret -- How eye-catching details render us blind : salience effect -- Why money is not naked : house-money effect -- Why New Year's resolutions don't work : procrastination -- Build your own castle : envy -- Why you prefer novels to statistics : personification -- You have no idea what you are overlooking : illusion of attention -- Hot air : strategic misrepresentation -- Where's the off switch? : overthinking -- Why you take on too much : planning fallacy -- Those wielding hammers see only nails : déformation professionnelle -- Mission accomplished : Zeigarnik effect -- The boat matters more than the rowing : illusion of skill -- Why checklists deceive you : feature-positive effect -- Drawing the bull's eye around the arrow : cherry picking -- The Stone Age hunt for scapegoats : fallacy of the single cause -- Why speed demons appear to be safer drivers : intention-to-treat error -- Why you shouldn't read the news : news illusion